Tuesday, August 21, 2012

Expectations and Probabilities

Peyton Manning is a quarterback, primarily for the Indianapolis Colts (a team I strongly dislike), now with the Denver Broncos. He is one of the very best ever at what he does (coming back from behind late in games). Because of that he has hurt my team many, many times in his playing career, and likewise any time he fails to do so is cause for an unusual amount of celebration. He was injured last season, and while he will be back for this coming season, we still do not know if he will ever be the same again.

Mariano Rivera is a closer for the New York Yankees (a team I strongly dislike). He is, almost without question, the very best ever at what he does (holding small leads in the late innings). Because of that, he has hurt my team many, many times in his playing career, and any time he fails to do so is cause for an unusual amount of celebration. He is injured this season, and while his will likely be back next season, we still do not know if he will ever be the same again.

Saturday, August 11, 2012

Middlebrooks Breaks Wrist, Sox Clinch Full Season Without #1 Lineup

Will Middlebrooks was hit on the hand in yesterday's otherwise encouraging victory over the Cleveland Indians, landing him on the DL with a broken wrist and just about guaranteeing that the Red Sox will not put their best lineup on the field for a single game this season. For reference, that expected best lineup would look something like this:

C: Salty/Shoppach (platoon)
1B: Adrian Gonzalez
2B: Dustin Pedroia
3B: Youkilis/Middlebrooks
SS: Mike Aviles
LF: Carl Crawford
CF: Jacoby Ellsbury
RF: Ross/Sweeney (platoon)
DH: David Ortiz

Thursday, August 9, 2012

Study: Synergistic and Cascading Effects In a Baseball Lineup.

This is study I did using a baseball simulator I wrote off and on over the last year as part of my high school senior project. Feedback on any part of it would be appreciated.



Synergistic/Cascading effects are a fancy way of saying the difference between a whole and the sum of it's parts. I first had the idea to try to test this for baseball after reading this basketball article about “chemistry” on teams, which used simulations to find how effective groups of five players with various skills would perform as a group. They found that certain skills had what they called positive or negative synergy with each other: having more players with a certain skill gets you proportionately more or less benefit respectively. For example, generating turnovers on defense has a positive synergy with itself, as if you have multiple players who can steal the ball, you will get disproportionately more steals. Meanwhile, avoiding turnovers on offense has negative synergy with itself, as only one offensive player can hang on to the ball at once. I was curious to see if that existed in baseball.


Tuesday, August 7, 2012

Initial introductory Post

Hello, and welcome to my newly created blog. My name is Rick, and I am a rising college Freshman who will be attending WPI this coming fall. I am creating this blog in large part so I have something to rant/wax poetic/sentimentally blather at when I leave home. Previously, that had been my parents/siblings/pets, but as I will no longer be staying with them that may become more difficult. The obvious replacement might be my new roommate, but while he seems to be a wonderful person, I suspect there might be some friction if, for example, a Will Middlebrooks injury leaves the poor guy listening to a non-stop "Why-did-they-trade-Youkillis-he-would-be-able-to-fill-in-better-than-Nick-Punto-who-does-not-suck-despite-what-SOSH-seems-to-think-of-him-but-is-still-much-worse-than-Kevin-Youkilis-who-really-should-not-have-been-traded-with-the-benefit-of-perfect-hindsight-although-it-was-relatively-obvious-that-the-Red-Sox-did-get-worse-this-season-when-they-made-that-trade-although-clubhouse-issued-are-rather-difficult-to-actually-understand-from-the-fans-perspective-so-maybe-not-but-they-did-wind-up-with-worse-raw-talent-dammit" tirade. Thus, the pleasure of listening to me (or reading a more well articulated and better researched version of what I would be saying) is all yours. 

Enjoy.