Saturday, August 11, 2012

Middlebrooks Breaks Wrist, Sox Clinch Full Season Without #1 Lineup

Will Middlebrooks was hit on the hand in yesterday's otherwise encouraging victory over the Cleveland Indians, landing him on the DL with a broken wrist and just about guaranteeing that the Red Sox will not put their best lineup on the field for a single game this season. For reference, that expected best lineup would look something like this:

C: Salty/Shoppach (platoon)
1B: Adrian Gonzalez
2B: Dustin Pedroia
3B: Youkilis/Middlebrooks
SS: Mike Aviles
LF: Carl Crawford
CF: Jacoby Ellsbury
RF: Ross/Sweeney (platoon)
DH: David Ortiz



How bad has it been, exactly? I looked through baseball reference's defensive lineups page for our 2012 Sox and counted the number of "ideal" players in each lineup. Any pair of players listed above were counted as one regardless (ex, if Ross played LF and Sweeney played RF for a game, I would only count one of them). Interleague was ignored for simplicity's sake, and odds are good that some of the 6 and 7 games got mixed up. All told, the Red Sox have played 105 DH games, and the lineups split out like this:
8 expected starters: 16 games
7 expected starters: 50 games
6 expected starters: 33 games
5 expected starters: 4 games
4 expected starters: 2 games.

This "perfectly imperfect" season has been a close run thing at times, with Pedroia being injured just nine games before both Ellsbury and Crawford returned, and coming back himself two days after Ortiz went on the DL. Now that Ortiz should be back shortly, Middlebrooks is out for a long time, likely (and hopefully, for the sake of a full recovery) the full season.

This makes three years in which the Red Sox have had truly horrifying injury troubles, many of them the highly flukey variety (both of the key Ellsbury injuries, the collision with Beltre and Reid Brignac landing on his shoulder at second base spring to mind). They have broken the record for DL stints in a season (25, previous record being 23), and there is more than a month remaining for them to extend their lead. the list of players lost to the DL would be a very long one, to the point that listing expected 25-man roster position players who have not been on the DL would be easier:
- C Kelly Shoppach
- C Jarrod Saltalamaccia
- 1B Adrian Gonzalez
- 2B/3B/SS Nick Punto
- SS Mike Aviles (still sat five consecutive games due to injury)

The pitching staff has been better off. Only Daisuke Matsuzaka and John Lackey (who is out with Tommy John and was never expected to pitch this season) has had any significant DL time among the starters (although Beckett is currently threatening), but the bullpen has been hard hit. Closer Andrew Bailey was hurt in spring training and has been expected back "soon" for a few moths now. Scott Atichson, having a fantastic season (1.76 ERA, 2.75 FIP, 0.9 fWAR in 46 innings), was lost for the season. Rich Hill was injured, came back briefly, was excellent for 13 innings, and was lost again. Andrew Miller started the season on the DL.

Ironically, the starting pitching, the one place least hurt by Injuries (John Lackey, one of only two DL'ed starters, was so bad last year that many considered his absence to be a significant positive), has been the weakest link on the team by a fair margin. Red Sox batters are 11th in the majors by WAR (+17.2), #7 in wOBA at .329, #8 in wRC+ (wOBA, but adjusted for the ballpark: 100 is average, higher is better) with a 101 mark, and second in baseball in runs scored with 557 (although they are 25th in baseball with a -1.78 WPA and have been inordinately bad against opposing teams closers). The bullpen, despite some recent struggles, has been very good, 9th in the majors with +3.4 WAR and #12 in WPA at +2.18. Raw ERA and FIP rank just #11 and #15 respectively, but after park adjustments they are #8 in both statistics. The starting pitching, by comparison is #17 in WAR (8.2), #14 in WPA (-1.39), #26 in ERA (4.83), and #23 in FIP (4.45). Park adjustments bump those rankings up to #23 in ERA and #17 in FIP, still not very good.

What is it with this team? they have a 60-54 pythagorean record, but due to their struggles to hit in high leverage spots against opposing closers and who knows what else, their actual record is just 56-58. They have (again) become horribly snake bit with injuries, and while this team (when healthy) is not quite the juggernaut which the similarly crippled 2010 and 2011 teams would have been, they certainly have the talent to be a playoff team (although their chances this year are infuriatingly slim, however talented they may be). Are they just super unlucky? Is the medical staff terrible? Are the hitters actually "unclutch," or might this high powered but frustratingly undisciplined lineup just play disproportionately poorly against great pitchers?

Can't say I know. I just hope the Red Sox can figure it out.

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